Potential impact of industrial transfer on PM2.5 and economic development under scenarios oriented by different objectives in Guangdong, China

For sustainable regional development, industrial transfer is an important trend that will potentially change the spatial and temporal pattern of air pollution and economic development. Aiming to better regulate industrial transfer and guide policy-making, this study proposes an assessment framework for industrial transfer that combines precise enterprise data, GIS technology and a 3-D air quality model. Taking Guangdong Province as an example, this study simulates the redistribution of 4015 high-pollution and high-energy-consumption (double-high) enterprises in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) to surrounding areas, and the potential impact on air quality is further evaluated. Three mutually independent transfer scenarios with different objectives are designed—ENV (ENVironment), ENT (ENTerprise), and GOV (GOVernment)—which aim to maximize benefits from the standpoint of the residents of Guangdong, the enterprises themselves, and local governments, respectively.