Changing trend of oral cancer disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and the forecast for the next 20 years

Objective: This study aimed to explore the trend of oral cancer (OC) disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the disease burden in the next 20 years.Methods: OC data collected for 15 year s old in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), with respective 95% CI, were used to assess incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life- year (DALY), and their trends.Results: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rate of incidence, mortality, and DALY of OC in China showed an upward trend with EAPCs of 2.33 (95% CI = 2.01- 2.63), 1.44 (95% CI = 1.15- 1.73), and 1.24 (95% CI = 0.95- 1.52), respectively. The main risk factors for OC in China were smoking and alcohol consumption. New cases, deaths, and DALYs due to OC are predicted to increase > 1.5 times over the next 20 years.Conclusion: The number of cases, deaths, and DALYs will continue to increase in the next 20 years. Therefore, the control of risk factors, such as tobacco and alcohol con- sumption, needs to be strengthened to reduce the burden of OC in China.