Changes in firm profitability, heterogeneous investor beliefs, and stock returns

In this study, we show that changes in profitability predict a firm's stock returns and future profitability. We construct three horizon-based profitability changes, including short-, medium-, and long-term changes. We find that the predictive information for short-term changes in profitability is not subsumed by the profitability level in the Chinese stock market. We also find that short-term profitability changes generate an asymmetrical premium across different market states. Furthermore, we find that the beta anomaly is embedded in the premium generated by a short-term change in profitability. In addition, we explore the underlying mechanisms of the profitability premium and propose a het-erogeneous investor belief channel to explain the profitability premium. We find that risk -based q-theory also helps explain the profitability premium. Therefore, the profitability premium comes from a mixed source and cannot be entirely explained by a single theory.(c) 2022 China Science Publishing & Media Ltd. Publishing Services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).