Improving active canopy sensor-based in-season rice nitrogen status diagnosis and recommendation using multi-source data fusion with machine learning

Accurate and non-destructive diagnosis of crop nitrogen (N) surplus and deficit status based on N nutrition index (NNI) is crucially important for the success of precision N management to improve N use efficiency (NUE) and reduce negative environmental impacts. However, due to the variability of the reflectance data obtained from different active crop sensors and complexity of the environmental and management conditions for regional applications, accurate determination of crop N status and topdressing N rate only using active canopy sensor data is very challenging. The objectives of this study were to (1) develop an in-season N status diagnosis and recommendation model based on NNI prediction using multi-source data fusion with machine learning, and (2) evaluate the accuracy of N diagnosis and recommendation in terms of rice yield and NUE under diverse on-farm conditions. Thirty plot experiments and thirteen on-farm experiments were conducted in Qixing Farm, Jiansanjiang, Northeast China from 2008 to 2018, and the dataset was used for the model calibration, validation, and evaluation. Two indirect and one direct NNI prediction methods using simple regression, stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) and random forest regression (RFR) were compared for N diagnosis and then integrated into N recommendation model. The results indicated that combining environmental and agronomic variables with crop sensor data improved the SMLR and RFR model performance by 1–16% and 9–40% over the corresponding models only using crop sensor data, respectively. The direct NNI prediction approach achieved slightly better N status diagnostic accuracy (areal agreement = 84% and Kappa statistics = 0.71) than indirect NNI prediction strategies based on plant N uptake and ΔN estimation (areal agreement = 81% and Kappa statistics = 0.67) or aboveground biomass and plant N uptake estimation (areal agreement = 77% and Kappa statistics = 0.58) across plot experiments and diverse on-farm conditions, based on multi-source data fusion with random forest regression models. About 82% of recommended N rates by the developed integrated in-season rice N diagnosis and recommendation model were within ±10 kg ha−1 of the measured economic optimum N rate across different varieties, environmental conditions and transplanting densities. Precision rice management based on in-season N diagnosis and recommendation decreased N rates and increased N partial factor productivity (PFPN) by 23% over regional optimum rice management, and significantly increased yield (7–11%) and PFPN (33–77%) over farmer's management. More studies are needed to develop in-season N diagnosis and recommendation strategies for applications across different regions and combine them with integrated precision rice management strategies for food security and sustainable development.