Connecting Future Environmental Trends and Assessments of Fish and Wildlife Resources of Concern: A Case Study of Big Pine Key, Florida.

Changes in hydrologic and climatic trends will influence the ecology of Florida, and climate scenarios agree that many areas of Florida are susceptible to sea-level rise impacts. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Climate Change Action Program focuses on a framework to examine climate change effects on fish, wildlife, plants, and habitats of all three. To follow the program, this study examines how to incorporate current scientific knowledge about regional climate projections in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service analyses. It provides climate change and sea-level rise projections based on 2017 projections, information on changes in tropical cyclones, temperatures, and precipitation. This study also examines future effects of sea-level rise on existing habitat from saltwater intrusion of the freshwater lens below Big Pine Key. Projections of future sea-water elevations will periodically be reached or exceeded well before 2040 from short-term, stochastic, and extreme events (e.g., king tides and storm surge), and will increasingly inundate the root zone before complete saltwater intrusion. Future trends were connected to 2017 stakeholder-driven conversations about adaptation strategies to develop a suite of actions for creating temporary or permanent freshwater resources. However, beyond 3 ft (0.9 m) of sea-level rise, there are few adaptation options available for the Florida Key deer beyond relocations outside of the Florida Keys. Overall, the approach of connecting future environmental trends to assessments of fish and wildlife resources of concern can be transferred to other situations. Additionally, this approach can be used to update these analyses, such as with the recent 2022 sea-level rise updates by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, released after this work was conducted.