History Does Not Repeat Itself; It Rhymes: Range Expansion and Outbreak of Plecia longiforceps (Diptera: Bibionidae) in East Asia

Abstract Plecia longiforceps Duda (Diptera: Bibionidae) is reported for the first time from Korea. P. longiforceps has been previously known from the East Asian subtropics, south of the 33rd parallel, including southeastern China, Taiwan, and the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. An integrative taxonomic approach based on morphological examination of male genitalia and molecular analysis of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene sequences confirms the species identification. The recent outbreak of P. longiforceps in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea, documented herein represents the northernmost record of this species and suggests its possible range expansion into the temperate zone. Similar to the range expansion and outbreak history of Plecia nearctica Hardy (Diptera: Bibionidae) in North America around the Gulf of Mexico in the 1960–1970s, P. longiforceps may become a new invasive pest in temperate East Asia. Here, we evaluate range expansion and invasion potential of P. longiforceps through Ensemble species distribution modeling and show that a great portion of Northeast Asia and Japan will likely become habitable for P. longiforceps in the next 50 years.