Increased numbers of pre-operative circulating monocytes predict risk of developing cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury in conditions requiring cardio pulmonary bypass

Background Evaluating patients’ risk for acute kidney injury (AKI) is crucial for positive outcomes following cardiac surgery. Our aims were first to select candidate risk factors from pre- or intra-operative real-world parameters collected from routine medical care and then evaluate potential associations between those parameters and risk of onset of post-operative cardiac surgery-associated AKI (CSA-AKI). Method We conducted two cohort studies in Japan. The first was a single-center prospective cohort study ( n = 145) to assess potential association between 115 clinical parameters collected from routine medical care and CSA-AKI (≥ Stage1) risk in the population of patients undergoing cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). To select candidate risk factors, we employed random forest analysis and applied survival analyses to evaluate association strength. In a second retrospective cohort study, we targeted patients undergoing cardiac surgery with CPB ( n = 619) and evaluated potential positive associations between CSA-AKI incidence and risk factors suggested by the first cohort study. Results Variable selection analysis revealed that parameters in clinical categories such as circulating inflammatory cells, CPB-related parameters, ventilation, or aging were potential CSA-AKI risk factors. Survival analyses revealed that increased counts of pre-operative circulating monocytes and neutrophils were associated with CSA-AKI incidence. Finally, in the second cohort study, we found that increased pre-operative circulating monocyte counts were associated with increased CSA-AKI incidence. Conclusions Circulating monocyte counts in the pre-operative state are associated with increased risk of CSA-AKI development. This finding may be useful in stratifying patients for risk of developing CSA-AKI in routine clinical practice.