Scenario Analysis of Annual Heating Energy Demand in North China from 2020 to 2050

Heating energy consumption in north China accounts for about 20% of the total building energy consumption. In this paper, a multiple regression model based on principal component analysis is established to study the primary energy consumption of central heating in north China (PECCH). Specifically, considering the limited amount of historical data, cross validation is used to determine the optimal value of the hyperparameter for PCA. Then a multiple regression model (Mr-PCA) is established, with the principal component as the independent variable and the PECCH as the dependent variable. It has been verified that the optimal number of principal components is 3 for the Mr-PCA, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2.3%. The results of scenario analysis show that by 2050, in the case of basic scenario, medium control scenario and enhanced control scenario, the PECCH will be 270 million tec, 210 million tec and 170 million tec respectively. The implementation of enhanced control measures is conducive to the realization of China’s future goal of carbon neutral.