The assessment and forecasting of carbon emission for Gansu-Qinghai-Shaanxi of China

For regional development, the assessment of regional low-carbon development level can fully reflect the current situation of low-carbon development, and the carbon emission forecasting can reveal the future trend of carbon emission and the pressure of emission reduction. It is significant to assess the low-carbon development level and forecast carbon emission. Therefore, this research constructs an index system to objectively reflect the low-carbon development level, and proposes IE-TOPSIS comprehensive assessment method to assess the regional low-carbon development level. For promoting the low-carbon development of the less developed areas in China, Gansu, Qinghai, and Shaanxi provinces are selected as the research objects. The results of comprehensive assessment show that low-carbon development level of the three provinces over past decade had an increasing trend. Furthermore, this research establishes a GM-GRA-DPC-PSOSVR combined forecasting model for carbon emission forecasting and it has higher forecasting accuracy than individual models. From 2021 to 2025, the forecasting results show that carbon emission of Shaanxi will continue to increase under the current development pattern, Gansu will increase slowly, while Qinghai will decrease.