Modeling the Transition Toward a Zero Emission Car Fleet: Integrating Electrification, Shared Mobility, and Automation

Car transport is currently undergoing three simultaneous revolutions that are co-shaping the pathway to low-carbon mobility: fleet electrification, shared mobility, and autonomous cars (ACs). So far, studies of the climate impacts have mostly focused on the revolutions in isolation, neglecting potential synergies, and using methodologies that poorly represent the long-term transition of physical systems such as the car fleet. Here, we developed a stock dynamics model and a scenario analysis for direct energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions generated by different combinations of the revolutions in Switzerland. The largest climate change mitigation potential is provided by combining ACs with ride-sharing with rapid fleet electrification, i.e. completely phasing out new gasoline and diesel cars by 2025 and new hybrid cars by 2030. By contrast, ACs without shared mobility generate the lowest mitigation potential. Electric ACs with ride-sharing are crucial for meeting the Swiss climate goals, e.g. carbon neutrality in 2050.