Natriuretic Peptide Levels and Predicting Risk of Developing New Diabetes Mellitus or Metabolic Syndrome: A Population Based Study

Introduction: The prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS), and diabetes mellitus (DM) is increasing, and the use of biomarkers to identify subjects at risk of developing MS or DM may be useful for disease prevention. Natriuretic peptides (NPs) are well known for their role as biomarkers in heart failure (HF), but are increasingly being recognized for their favorable metabolic actions and potential role as risk modifiers for the development of DM and MS. To date, however, this risk relationship has not been well defined in the general population. Hypothesis: Adults in the general population with lower NP levels are at higher risk for developing DM or MS. Methods: A retrospective review of the Olmsted County Heart Function Study cohort, a population-based random sample of 2042 Olmsted County, MN residents aged ≥ 45 years. A subgroup of community-dwelling subjects without MS or DM at Visit 1 was identified and subjects returned for followup after 4 years (Visit 2). We compared the characteristics of subjects that developed MS or DM after 4 years to those that did not. Results: Of the 911 subjects who did not have MS or DM at visit 1, 93 (10.2%) developed either MS or DM at visit 2. Subjects who developed MS or DM at visit 2 were more likely to have higher baseline BMI (p <0.001), lower HDL (p<0.001), higher triglycerides (p < 0.001), higher insulin (p< 0.001), higher aldosterone (p < 0.001) levels, lower NT-proANP (p<0.001) and lower NT-proBNP levels (p < 0.01) compared to those that did not develop MS or DM. Those that developed MS or DM were also at higher risk for development of HF when controlling for age and sex (HR 2.73 CI 1.25-5.96). On univariate analysis, higher baseline levels of NT-proANP and NT pro-BNP had a significant negative association with developing new MS or DM (ORs per 1 SD increase: 0.64, CI 0.51-0.79 p < 0.0001 and 0.76, CI 0.62-0.95 p=0.016, respectively). Conclusions: Among adults aged ≥ 45 years in the community, low levels of NT- ANP and NT-proBNP are associated with increased risk of development of DM and MS. Further studies are warranted to determine if potentiating the natriuretic peptide system would delay the development of DM or MS.