Predicting Kidney Outcomes among Latin American Patients with Lupus Nephritis: the Prognostic Value of Interstitial Fibrosis and Tubular Atrophy and Tubulointerstitial Inflammation

Objective To assess the effect of tubulointerstitial inflammation (TII) and interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA) on kidney survival in lupus nephritis (LN). Methods Two hundred eighty five patients with biopsy-proven LN were retrospectively studied. Kidney survival was defined as the time from initial biopsy to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), dialysis, or transplant. Kidney survival analysis was performed by the Kaplan–Meier method and the statistical difference between survival curves compared by the log-rank test. Cumulative incidence functions with competing risk of death for kidney survival were also graphed. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression and competing-risk analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of ESKD. Results Fifty-seven patients (20%) progressed to ESKD during a median time of 4.2 (2.0–55.2) months after biopsy. TII was present in 206 (72.3%) biopsies, while IFTA in 99 (34.7%) biopsies. Patients with moderate-to-severe IFTA had worse kidney survival than those with none or mild IFTA in both the Kaplan–Meier ( p = 0.018) and the competing-risk analyses ( p = 0.017). Patients with class IV ± V LN had worse kidney survival than those with non-class IV LN by the Kaplan–Meier method ( p = 0.050), but not in the competing-risk analysis ( p = 0.154). Worse kidney survival was also found among those with fibrous crescents than those without, in both the Kaplan–Meier ( p = 0.010) and the competing-risk ( p = 0.011) analyses. By multivariable Cox regression analysis, older age (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01–1.07) and class IV ± V LN (HR 5.06, 95% CI 1.82–14.09) were associated with higher risk of ESKD after adjusting for sex, ethnicity, TII, and IFTA. By competing-risk analyses, class IV ± V LN (SHR 3.32, 95% CI 1.25–8.83) and no response to immunosuppressive therapy (SHR 4.55, 95% CI 1.54–13.41) were associated with a higher risk of ESKD, while eGFR >90 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SHR 0.98 for each ml/min/1.73 m 2 , 95% 0.97–0.99) with a lower risk. Conclusions Patients with moderate-to-severe IFTA had worse kidney survival than those with none or mild IFTA. Worse kidney survival was also found among those with class IV LN and fibrous crescents versus those without IV LN and fibrous crescents, respectively.