Using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to Estimate the Suitability of European Mediterranean Non-Native Area for the Establishment of Toumeyella Parvicornis (Hemiptera: Coccidae).

The pine tortoise scale, , is an insect native to the Nearctic region that is able to infest several species. It can cause weakening, defoliation and, at high infestation levels, tree death. After its first report in Italy in 2015, the pest spread rapidly over the surrounding areas and was reported in France in 2021. Due to the threat that this pest poses to pine trees, the suitability of European Mediterranean basin areas for at different spatial scales was estimated by constructing species distribution models (SDMs) using bioclimatic variables. Our results showed that several coastal areas of the Mediterranean basin area could be suitable for . Based on performance assessment, all the SDMs tested provided a good representation of the suitability of European Mediterranean non-native area for at different spatial scales. In particular, most of the areas with a medium or high level of suitability corresponded to the geographical range of distribution of different spp. in Europe. Predicting the suitability of European Mediterranean areas for provides a fundamental tool for early detection and management of the spread of this pest in Europe.