Agency affects pain inference through prior shift as opposed to likelihood precision modulation in a Bayesian pain model.

Agency and expectations play a crucial role in pain perception and treatment. In the Bayesian pain model, somatosensation (likelihood) and expectations (prior) are weighted by their precision and integrated to form a pain percept (posterior). Combining pain treatment with stimulus-related expectations allows the mechanistic assessment of whether agency enters this model as a shift of the prior or a relaxation of the likelihood precision. In two experiments, heat pain was sham treated either externally or by the subject, while a predictive cue was utilized to create high or low treatment expectations. Both experiments revealed additive effects and greater pain relief under self-treatment and high treatment expectations. Formal model comparisons favored a prior shift rather than a modulation of likelihood precision. Electroencephalography revealed a theta-to-alpha effect, temporally associated with expectations, which was correlated with trial-by-trial pain ratings, further supporting a prior shift through which agency exerts its influence in the Bayesian pain model.