Does the likelihood of malignancy in thyroid nodules with RAS mutations increase in direct proportion with the allele frequency percentage?

Background Genomic testing has enhanced pre-surgical decision making for cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules, but there remains uncertainty regarding RAS mutations. The addition of extra genetic alterations to previous driver mutation panels has been shown to improve predictive value. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between the mutant allele frequency (AF) and likelihood of malignancy in thyroid nodules with RAS mutations. Methods A retrospective cohort review was performed evaluating patients with indeterminate cytology (Bethesda categories III, IV and V) and ThyroSeq® v3 testing demonstrating a RAS mutation, who underwent surgery. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to evaluate relationships between AF, other genetic alterations, and malignancy. Results Thirty-nine patients met criteria, 77% of the thyroid nodules (30/39) were found to be malignant. None demonstrated aggressive pathology. On univariate regression, there was no relationship between AF and likelihood of malignancy. There was, however, a significant correlation between AF and the rate of an additional genetic alteration. Multivariate analysis found a trend between RAS , a second genetic alteration and malignancy, but it did not reach statistical significance. Conclusions There was no direct relationship between the level of allelic frequency in thyroid nodules expressing RAS mutations and the likelihood of malignancy. There was a statistically significant relationship between increasing AF and the presence of a second genetic abnormality, suggesting a possible progression from initial driver mutation and then a second genetic alteration prior to malignant transformation. Graphical abstract