Combining a machine-learning derived 4-lncRNA signature with AFP and TNM stages in predicting early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma

Background Near 70% of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence is early recurrence within 2-year post surgery. Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are intensively involved in HCC progression and serve as biomarkers for HCC prognosis. The aim of this study is to construct a lncRNA-based signature for predicting HCC early recurrence. Methods Data of RNA expression and associated clinical information were accessed from The Cancer Genome Atlas Liver Hepatocellular Carcinoma (TCGA-LIHC) database. Recurrence associated differentially expressed lncRNAs (DELncs) were determined by three DEG methods and two survival analyses methods. DELncs involved in the signature were selected by three machine learning methods and multivariate Cox analysis. Additionally, the signature was validated in a cohort of HCC patients from an external source. In order to gain insight into the biological functions of this signature, gene sets enrichment analyses, immune infiltration analyses, as well as immune and drug therapy prediction analyses were conducted. Results A 4-lncRNA signature consisting of AC108463.1, AF131217.1, CMB9-22P13.1, TMCC1-AS1 was constructed. Patients in the high-risk group showed significantly higher early recurrence rate compared to those in the low-risk group. Combination of the signature, AFP and TNM further improved the early HCC recurrence predictive performance. Several molecular pathways and gene sets associated with HCC pathogenesis are enriched in the high-risk group. Antitumor immune cells, such as activated B cell, type 1 T helper cell, natural killer cell and effective memory CD8 T cell are enriched in patients with low-risk HCCs. HCC patients in the low- and high-risk group had differential sensitivities to various antitumor drugs. Finally, predictive performance of this signature was validated in an external cohort of patients with HCC. Conclusion Combined with TNM and AFP, the 4-lncRNA signature presents excellent predictability of HCC early recurrence.