Trends in Supply of Nursing Home Beds, 2011-2019.

Importance:Nursing homes play a vital role in providing postacute and long-term care for individuals whose needs cannot be met in the home or community. Whether the supply of nursing home beds and, specifically, the supply of high-quality beds has kept pace with the growth of the older adult population is unknown. Objective:To describe changes in the supply of population-adjusted nursing home beds from 2011 to 2019. Design, Setting, and Participants:This cross-sectional study examines changes in the population-adjusted supply of nursing home beds across all US counties from 2011 to 2019 and describes county and nursing home characteristics where the supply of nursing home beds has increased vs decreased. Main Outcomes and Measures:Number of nursing home beds adjusted per 10 000 adults aged 65 years and older. Results:The population-adjusted supply of nursing home beds declined from 2011 to 2019 for 86.4% of US counties, by a mean (SD) of 129.9 (123.8) beds per 10 000 adults aged 65 years or older per county from a baseline mean (SD) of 552.5 (274.4) beds per 10 000 adults aged 65 years or older per county in 2011. The share of beds that were high quality (4- or 5-star ratings) also declined, which was driven by a small number of counties where nursing home bed supply increased due to a proliferation of lower-quality beds. Simultaneously, metropolitan counties with declining numbers of nursing home beds also experienced declining number of senior housing residential beds (-11.3 [54.6] beds per 10 000 adults aged 65 years or older per county from a baseline mean [SD] of 354.8 [222.3]). Conclusions and Relevance:The findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that the supply of nursing home beds, specifically high-quality nursing home beds, and senior residential housing beds have not kept pace with the demographics of an aging population. Understanding the supply of high-quality nursing home beds and associated geographic variation can inform targeted policies to best support older adults requiring nursing home care.