A belief rule-based bayesian network approach for assessing risks in the cruise supply chain: An empirical study in Shanghai, China

•This study makes the first attempt to investigate risks in the cruise industry from a supply chain perspective.•The most significant risks are “Communicable diseases”, “Ship accidents”, “Injuries”, “Geopolitical risks”, “Climate change and weather issues".•A novel risk assessment model was developed, incorporating Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, Rule-based Bayesian Network (RBN), Evidential Reasoning, Degree of Belief, Analytic Hierarchy Process.•The model considers the differences in the trustworthiness of expert opinions and the differential weights of the antecedent attributes, and improves RBN calculation efficiency.