Trends in Adolescent Firearm-Related Injury: A Time Series Analysis

Background Firearm-related injury (FRI) became the leading cause of death among children/adolescents in 2019. Purpose This study sought to determine changes over time in the population of adolescents affected by FRI in Atlanta, Georgia, such that high risk cohorts could be identified. Research Design City-wide retrospective cohort review. Study Sample Adolescent victims (age 11-21 years of age) of FRI, defined by ICD9/10 codes, in Atlanta, Georgia. Data Analysis Descriptive, multivariate and time series analysis. Results There were 1,453 adolescent FRI victims in this time period, predominantly Black (86%) and male (86.6%). Unintentional injury was higher among ages 11-14 years (43.1%) compared to 15-17 years (10.2%) and 18-21 years (9.3%) (P < .01). FRI affecting females increased at a rate of 8.1 injuries/year (P < .01), and unintentional injuries increased at by 7.6/year (P < .01). Mortality declined from 16% in 2016 to 7.7% in 2021. Conclusion Our data provides evidence for firearm policy reform. Interventions should target prevention of intentional injury among AQ4 females and seek to reverse the trend in unintentional injuries.