Analyzing the structural development of industrial production in the regions of the russian arctic

The aim of the study was to identify the key trends in the structural development of industrial production in the regions of the Russian Arctic. Based on the share of industrial activity in the gross value added, the total volume of investment in fixed capital, and the number of employees, the authors analyzed structural shifts and assessed changes in the structure of industrial production in nine regions that are fully or partially located in the Russian Arctic. To quantitatively measure structural transformations, we used indices such as the structural shift mass, the index of the difference between two structures (Ryabtsev index), and the quadratic coefficient of absolute structural shifts (Kazinets index). The study found that over the period 2005–2020, the main trend in the structural transformations of industrial production in the regions of the Russian Arctic was the growing economic dominance and investment attractiveness of industries associated with the extraction of minerals. It is shown that the pace of structural shifts in the industry of the Arctic regions had a clear dependence on the phase of the economic cycle: during crises, the deviations of the shares of structural elements in all the structures under study increased markedly compared to the subsequent periods of economic activity. This dependence confirms the significant transformational impact of geopolitical and geoeconomic processes on the existing system of economic activity in the Arctic, indicating the need for further research on this topic in light of the recent large-scale crises of 2020–2022. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the use of multiple parameters that allow for assessing the scale of structural transformations taking place in the industrial production of Arctic regions more fully and deeply. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the results in developing regional strategies and programs for the socioeconomic development of the Arctic.