Rapid Decline in beta-Cell Function and Increasing Adiposity Are Associated With Conversion to Type 2 Diabetes in At-Risk Latino Youth

Youth-onset type 2 diabetes (T2D) is becoming increasingly prevalent, especially among Latino youth, and there is limited information on its pathophysiology and causative factors. Here, we describe findings from a longitudinal cohort study in 262 Latino children with overweight/obesity at risk of developing T2D with annual measures of oral and intravenous glucose tolerance (IVGTT), body composition, and fat distribution. Logistic binomial regression was used to identify significant predictors in those who developed T2D compared with matched control participants, and mixed-effects growth models were used to compare rates of change in metabolic versus adiposity measures between groups. Overall conversion rate to T2D at year 5 was 2% (n = 6). Rate of decline in disposition index (DI), measured with an IVGTT, over 5 years was three times higher in case patients (-341.7 units per year) compared with the extended cohort (-106.7 units per year) and 20 times higher compared with control participants (-15.2 units per year). Case patients had significantly higher annual increases in fasting glucose, hemoglobin A(1c) (HbA(1c)), waist circumference, and trunk fat, and there was an inverse correlation between rate of decline in DI and rates of increase in adiposity measures. T2D development in at-risk Latino youth is associated with a substantial and rapid decrease in DI that is directly correlated with increases in fasting glucose, HbA(1c), and adiposity.