General Framework to Quantitatively Predict Pharmacokinetic Induction Drug–Drug Interactions Using in Vitro Data

Metabolic inducers can expose people with polypharmacy to adverse health outcomes. A limited fraction of potential drug–drug interactions (DDIs) have been or can ethically be studied in clinical trials, leaving the vast majority unexplored. In the present study, an algorithm has been developed to predict the induction DDI magnitude, integrating data related to drug-metabolising enzymes. The area under the curve ratio (AUCratio) resulting from the DDI with a victim drug in the presence and absence of an inducer (rifampicin, rifabutin, efavirenz, or carbamazepine) was predicted from various in vitro parameters and then correlated with the clinical AUCratio (N = 319). In vitro data including fraction unbound in plasma, substrate specificity and induction potential for cytochrome P450s, phase II enzymes and uptake, and efflux transporters were integrated. To represent the interaction potential, the in vitro metabolic metric (IVMM) was generated by combining the fraction of substrate metabolised by each hepatic enzyme of interest with the corresponding in vitro fold increase in enzyme activity (E) value for the inducer. Two independent variables were deemed significant and included in the algorithm: IVMM and fraction unbound in plasma. The observed and predicted magnitudes of the DDIs were categorised accordingly: no induction, mild, moderate, and strong induction. DDIs were assumed to be well classified if the predictions were in the same category as the observations, or if the ratio between these two was < 1.5-fold. This algorithm correctly classified 70.5