Bitcoin Evolution Analytics: Twitter Sentiments to Predict Price Change as Bearish or Bullish.

In the financial market, Bitcoin analytics has gained lots of attention due to its high-risk high-reward nature. It is interesting to find better techniques to analyze and predict the Bitcoin price change. In this paper, we propose Bitcoin Evolution Analytics, which aims to predict the Bitcoin price change after one hour as Bearish or Bullish. For the prediction, the approach combines the Sentiment analysis and the Technical indicators. For Sentiment analysis of tweets related to Bitcoin, the approach uses three Natural Language Processing (NLP) libraries, namely VADER, FinBERT, and TextBlob, which generated eight different sentiment scores. For Technical indicators, the approach used three features of Bitcoin: User Sentiment Score, Aroon Indicators, and Accumulation/Distribution Line Indicators. We represented all these features of Bitcoin Data over time, which created a novel Bitcoin State Series. To predict the price change of the next hour as Bearish or Bullish, we built the state series for each hour of continuous 13 months (March 2021 - March 2022). To find the most reliable set of features, we have trained 27 ML models. For each feature set, we compared the average and maximum of the accuracies and f-measures. The results of our experiment show that considering the followers of the user as the "weight" of the sentiment gives a more accurate prediction. We found that a combination of Sentiment Analysis and Technical Indicators performs better than using only Sentiment Analysis.