Shortening Rates and Recurrence of Large Earthquakes from Folded and Uplifted Terraces in the Western Danghe Nan Shan Foreland, North Tibet

Understanding the three-dimensional structure, segmentation, and kinematics of complex fault systems is essential to assessing the size of potential earthquakes and related seismic hazards. The Danghe Nan Shan thrust, a major splay of the Altyn Tagh fault (ATF) in north Tibet, is one of these complex fault junctions. Near the town of Subei, the western Danghe Nan Shan thrust composes two left-stepping faults outlined by fault scarps in front of folded and uplifted alluvial fans and terraces. Age constraints and 2D reconstructions of the accumulated slip above a transient base level of four terraces standing 7 & ndash;60 m above the present stream bed yield shortening and vertical uplift rates of 0.5 +/- 0.1 and 1.1 +/- 0.3 mm/yr, respectively, over the last 130 ka on the southern thrust. Along the northern thrust, vertical terrace offsets of 1.5 & ndash;3.6 m and horizontal slip of 4.5 m documented in a paleoseismological trench occurred after 12 +/- 4 ka, constraining coeval rates of 0.3 +/- 0.1 mm/ yr for uplift and shortening. Overall, 1.4 +/- 0.4 mm/yr terrace uplift and 0.8 +/- 0.2 mm/yr shortening rates are determined, in agreement with late Miocene long-term exhumation rate estimates. Our fault mapping and geomorphic and structural observations imply that the western Danghe Nan Shan thrust accommodates slip transfer from the ATF to the west to thrusting and shortening farther east in the Qilian Shan region. Considering the scarp sizes, their lateral extent, the geometry of the faults at depth, and their slip-rate, we suggest the possible occurrence of Mw 7+ earthquakes near Subei.