Annual Redd Counts Across Two Decades Are Indicators of Changing Migratory Bull Trout Population Sizes in Two Proximate Montana Creeks

Redd counts are the most widely used method for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus Suckley) population monitoring. Redd counts are an assumed indicator of population size (N), particularly for female spawners, but previous studies rarely considered the measurement uncertainty of N. The present study of two proximate, migratory bull trout populations across two decades examined statistical correlations between annual redd counts and concurrent N (predominantly fish ages 3-7) that included measurement uncertainty. Results showed that redd counts explained about one-third of the concurrent N variation and, in one case, portended N 7 years later. But changing spawning distributions across years, as likewise shown here and as a probable effect of ongoing climate change, can confound the use of fixed index reaches for redd counts. Instead, abundance monitoring based on redd counts should be over a bull trout population's or metapopulation's entire spatial extent and have counts in all potential spawning areas. Such total-annual redd counts may be the most cost-effective and precise means of bull trout population monitoring.