Spatial patterns of vigor by stand density across species groups and its drivers in a pre-harvest ponderosa pine-dominated landscape in northern California

Information on spatial patterns of forest health and stand vigor in historical forests is quite limited, particularly for forests of North America, which have been subsequently harvested. We used forest inventory data from 1934, which pre-dated early 20th century timber harvest, to reconstruct patterns of vigor in overstory trees. Across 4,000 ha of ponderosa pine-dominated forests in the Blacks Mountain Experimental Forest (BMEF), we described the spatial patterns of pre-harvest (1934) forests using a stand density index (SDI) and accounting for different species and vigor classes. We then identified topo-edaphic variables associated with pre-harvest SDI. To do so, we first calculated SDI for two species groups: 1) ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.) and Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. & Balf.), and 2) incense-cedar (Calocedrus decurrens (Torr.) Florin) and white fir (Abies concolor (Grod. and Glend.)) as well as for seven vigor classes within these two groups. Second, using Moran's I, we found four spatially aggregated clusters (Moran's I = 0.35): 1) ponderosa pine-high vigor, 2) ponderosa pine-low vigor, 3) mixed species-high vigor, and 4) mixed species-low vigor. Most of the pre-harvest landscape consisted of high vigor ponderosa pine clusters with low SDI (relative density (RD) < 0.25). High elevation sections consisted of mixed species clusters of both high and low vigor with high SDI (RD > 0.35). Using classification and regression tree analysis, we identified elevation (m), surface-soil depth (cm), and sub-soil depth (cm) were related to the clusters. A multinominal logistic regression model (kappa = 0.44; classification accuracy = 64.4 %) identified surface stoniness, available water capacity at 150 cm depth and its interaction with sub-soil depth as important variables that were related to clusters. Within ponderosa pine-dominated forests, managers consider dense stands of low vigor trees to be at-risk of insect, disease, and fire. Thus, our results can be used by managers as representative baselines for characterizing (pre-harvest) stand conditions to guide management treatments to support high vigor and low density forest conditions.