Association of Ambient Temperature with Mortality in Resident and Multiethnic Transient Populations in a Desert Climate, 2006-2014

BACKGROUND: Although the association between ambient temperature and mortality in local populations is evident, this relationship remains unclear in transient populations (e.g., due to immigration, mass gatherings, or displacement). The holy city of Mecca annually shelters two populations comprising its residents and the transitory Hajj pilgrims (>2 million people from >180 countries). Both live side by side in a hot desert climate, rendering the development of evidence-based heat-protective measures challenging. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to characterize the ambient temperature-mortality relationship and burden for the Mecca resident and Hajj transient populations, which have distinct levels of adaptation to ambient temperature. METHODS: We analyzed daily air temperature and mortality data for Mecca residents and pilgrims over nine Hajj seasons between 2006 and 2014, using a fitted standard time-series Poisson model. We characterized the temperature-mortality relationship with a distributed lag nonlinear model with 10 d of lag. We determined the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and attributable deaths for heat and cold for the two populations. RESULTS: The median average daily temperature during the Hajj seasons was 30 degrees C (19 degrees C-37 degrees C). There were 8,543 and 10,457 nonaccidental deaths reported during the study period among Mecca residents and pilgrims, respectively. The MMT was 2.5 degrees C lower for pilgrims in comparison with the MMT for Mecca residents (23.5 degrees C vs. 26.0 degrees C). The temperature-mortality relationship shape varied from inverted J to U shape for the Mecca and pilgrim populations, respectively. Neither hot nor cold temperatures had a statistically significant association with mortality in Mecca residents. In contrast, for pilgrims, elevated temperatures were associated with significantly high attributable mortality of 70.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 62.8, 76.0]. The effect of heat on pilgrims was immediate and sustained. DISCUSSION: Our findings indicate that pilgrims and Mecca residents exposed to the same hot environmental conditions exhibited distinct health outcomes. This conclusion suggests that a precision public health approach may be warranted to protect against high environmental temperature during mass gatherings of diverse populations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9838