Aberrant perception of environmental volatility during social learning in emerging psychosis

Paranoid delusions or unfounded beliefs that others intend to deliberately cause harm are a frequent and burdensome symptom in early psychosis, but their emergence and consolidation still remains opaque. Recent theories suggest that aberrant prediction errors lead to a brittle model of the world providing a breeding ground for delusions. Here, we employ a Bayesian approach to test for a more unstable model of the world and investigate the computational mechanisms underlying emerging paranoia. We modelled behaviour of 18 first-episode psychosis patients (FEP), 19 individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P), and 19 healthy controls (HC) during an advice-taking task, designed to probe learning about others’ changing intentions. We formulated competing hypotheses comparing the standard Hierarchical Gaussian Filter (HGF), a Bayesian belief updating scheme, with a mean-reverting HGF to model an altered perception of volatility. There was a significant group-by-volatility interaction on advice-taking suggesting that CHR-P and FEP displayed reduced adaptability to environmental volatility. Model comparison favored the standard HGF in HC, but the mean-reverting HGF in CHR-P and FEP in line with perceiving increased volatility, although model attributions in CHR-P were heterogeneous. We observed correlations between shifts in perceived volatility and positive symptoms generally as well as with frequency of paranoid delusions specifically. Our results suggest that FEP are characterised by a different computational mechanism – perceiving the environment as increasingly volatile – in line with Bayesian accounts of psychosis. This approach may prove useful to investigate heterogeneity in CHR-P and identify vulnerability for transition to psychosis. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (Doc.Mobility, 200054 to DJH; Ambizione, PZ00P3\_167952 to AOD, Project grant: CRSK-3\_190834 to RB and AM) and the Krembil Foundation (to AOD). ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The ethics committee of the Ethikkommission Nordwest- und Zentralschweiz gave approval for this work (no. 2017-01149). I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes De-identified data will be made available under upon acceptance of this manuscript. Note, that one participant did not consent to make their data available for reuse and will be excluded from the public repository. To ensure reproducibility, we report all results excluding this participant in the Supplement.