Examining the Impact of Increasing Vaccine Coverage and Nonpharmaceutical Interventions against Coronavirus Disease 2019 In Ghana using Mathematical Modeling

Seroprevalence studies assessing community exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Ghana concluded that population-level immunity remained low as of February 2021. Thus, it is important to demonstrate how increasing vaccine coverage reduces the economic and public health impacts associated with transmission of the novel coronavirus. To that end, this study used a Susceptible-Exposed-Presymptomatic-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered-Dead-Vaccinated compartmental model to simulate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission and the role of public health interventions in Ghana. The impact of increasing vaccination rate and decline in transmission rates due to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on cumulative infections and deaths averted was explored under different scenarios. Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC) was used to investigate uncertainty and sensitivity of the outcomes to the parameters. Simulation results suggest that increasing the vaccination rate to achieve 50% coverage was associated with almost 30,000 deaths and 25 million infections averted. In comparison, a 50% decrease in the transmission coefficient was associated with about 50 million infections and 120,000 deaths averted. The LHS-PRCC results also found that cumulative infections and deaths averted were most sensitive to three model parameters: Transmission rate, vaccination rate, and waning immunity rate from infection. There is a need to increase vaccination coverage by ensuring an increased supply. Adherence to NPIs and increased vaccine uptake would successfully mitigate the impact of COVID-19 in Ghana. ### Competing Interest Statement Sylvia Ofori declares that she is a paid intern at Ionis Pharmaceuticals, and the financial relationship does not affect the article's content. Prof. Benjamin Cowling declares that he was a consultant for Roche and Sanofi Pasteur. All other co-authors declare no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This study did not receive any external funding. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes