A multiagent coronavirus model with territorial vulnerability parameters

We developed a simple and user-friendly simulator called MD Corona that is based on a multiagent model and describes the transmission dynamics of coronavirus for a given location considering three setting parameters: population density, social-isolation rate, and effective transmission probability. The latter is represented by the Coronavirus Protection Index (CPI) - a measurement of a given territory’s vulnerability to the coronavirus that includes characteristics of the health system and socioeconomic development as well as infrastructure. The dynamic model also relies on other real epidemiological parameters. The model is calibrated by using immunity surveys and provides accurate predictions and indications of the different spread dynamic mechanisms. Our simulation studies clearly demonstrate the existence of multiple epidemic curves in the same city due to different vulnerabilities to the virus across regions. And it elucidates the phenomenon of the epidemic slowing despite a reduction in social-distancing policies, understood as a consequence of “local protection bubbles.” The simulator can be used for scientific outreach purposes, bringing science closer to the general public in order to raise awareness and increase engagement about the effectiveness of social distancing in reducing the transmissibility of the virus, but also to support effective actions to mitigate the spread of the virus. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was supported by Tide Setubal Foundation and the Federal University of ABC. PCM work was supported by Marie Curie (MSCA) grant no. 799974. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: No data needed approval. All simulation data. All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Although this research used some literature data as inputs to the model, such as the incubation period, which is human, data from clinical or laboratory exams of patients were not used. Therefore, it is exempt from the appraisal of a research ethics committee by the Brazilian legislation expressed in the Resolution of the National Health Council (CONEP) number 466/12