First Steps towards a near Real-Time Modelling System of Vibrio vulnificus in the Baltic Sea.

Over the last two decades, infections have emerged as an increasingly serious public health threat along the German Baltic coast. To manage related risks, near real-time (NRT) modelling of quantities has often been proposed. Such models require spatially explicit input data, for example, from remote sensing or numerical model products. We tested if data from a hydrodynamic, a meteorological, and a biogeochemical model are suitable as input for an NRT model system by coupling it with field samples and assessing the models' ability to capture known ecological parameters of . We also identify the most important predictors for in the Baltic Sea by leveraging the St. Nicolas House Analysis. Using a 27-year time series of sea surface temperature, we have investigated trends of season length, which pinpoint hotspots mainly in the east of our study region. Our results underline the importance of water temperature and salinity on abundance but also highlight the potential of air temperature, oxygen, and precipitation to serve as predictors in a statistical model, albeit their relationship with may not be causal. The evaluated models cannot be used in an NRT model system due to data availability constraints, but promising alternatives are presented. The results provide a valuable basis for a future NRT model for in the Baltic Sea.