Hippos alter their aggregations to mitigate density-dependent drought effects

Megaherbivores play a critical role in the ecology of African savannas and grasslands. In addition, these systems are forecast to experience more frequent and severe droughts as a product of changes in the global climate. Thus, the continued conservation of megaherbivores and their associated ecosystems will require a better understanding of how megaherbivores respond to drought by shifting their movement, diet and social behaviour. We address this need by investigating the factors affecting changes in the abundance of common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius; hereafter: 'hippos') throughout the six major rivers of Kruger National Park, South Africa, during and following the severe drought of 2015/2016. Specifically, we aimed to understand the role of two environmental characteristics that have relevance to hippos and that changed in response to drought: vegetation condition and the extent of pooled surface water. In addition, we investigated the extent to which pre-drought density affected changes in hippo abundance. Although vegetation and daytime refugia both appeared to influence pre-drought hippo abundance, these factors were less important to the change in hippo abundance related to the drought. Instead, the response to drought was most strongly related to the pre-drought abundance of hippos, where river segments supporting more than 50 individuals prior to the drought in 2015 decreased by more than half on average. Furthermore, we show that the degree of aggregation decreased from 2015 to 2016 because of the drought, but then began to increase again as the rains returned in 2017. Our results suggest that in addition to the large pools that support large aggregations of hippos in typical years, additional smaller pools are likely important for accommodating this drought-induced dispersion. However, maintaining this distribution of pools will likely become more challenging as southern Africa's population and water demands increase.