Histopathological Features Predicting Long-term Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Vanishing Bile Duct Syndrome

Background and Aims: The clinicopathological features and long-term outcomes of patients with vanishing bile duct syndrome (VBDS) have yet to be elucidated. The study aims to investigate these features and identify factors associated with poor prognosis. Methods: This multicenter retrospective study recruited patients with liver biopsy-proven VBDS who were followed up at five hospitals in northern China from January 2003 to April 2022. Clinical and pathological data at time of biopsy were reviewed. Clinical outcomes including cirrhosis, decompensation events, liver transplantation (LT), and liver-related death were recorded. Cox regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors associated with poor outcomes. Results: A total of 183 patients were included. The median age was 47 years, with 77.6% being women. During a median follow-up of 4.8 years, 88 patients developed compensated or decompensated cirrhosis, 27 died, and 15 received LT. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that hepatocellular cholestasis (HR 2.953, 95% CI: 1.437-6.069), foam cells (HR 2.349, 95% CI: 1.092-5.053), and advanced fibrosis (HR 2.524, 95% CI: 1.313-4.851) were independent predictors of LT or liver-related deaths. A nomogram formulated with the above factors showed good consistency with a concordance index of 0.746 (95% CI: 0.706-0.785). Conclusions: Nearly half of VBDS patients studied progressed to end-stage liver disease and 23% of them had LT or liver-related death within two years of diagnosis. Hepatocellular cholestasis, foam cells and advanced fibrosis rather than the degree of bile duct loss or underlying etiologies were independently associated with poor prognosis in VBDS patients.