Climate change, degradation, and land acquisitions: evaluating inequalities among competing interests for suitable cropland in Ethiopia

Land is the central resource for agriculture. In many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where a large portion of the population relies on agriculture for subsistence and household incomes, future declines in the productive capacity of the land owing to environmental change pose a major threat both to farming and the well-being of smallholders. Smallholders' access to land is concurrently at risk due to large-scale land acquisitions (LSLA), promoted by governments across SSA as a means to secure capital investments for agricultural growth and economic development. These issues are especially widespread in Ethiopia, which has faced both extensive land degradation and been a primary target country for LSLA investments. This study analyzes the relative quality of land under the control of smallholders vs. large investors in western Ethiopia, with particular attention to how future suitability of land is likely to change for growing three major smallholder crops: Maize (Zea mays), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), and beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). Spatial analyses are applied to compare the suitability in areas allocated to LSLAs and the remaining land available to smallholders in the country's western farming systems. Crop-specific suitability datasets are used to approximate the change in land quality between baseline conditions and scenarios of future climate change to assess the effects of climate-induced land degradation. Results indicate large areas of decreasing suitability by the late 21st century for all crops across Ethiopia. Furthermore, this study shows that LSLA occupy land with more stable suitability, suggesting more secure agricultural land is being offered to investors.