Scenario assessment of introducing carbon utilization and carbon removal technologies considering future technological transition based on renewable energy and direct air capture

Carbon capture and utilization (CCU) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies have the potential to significantly contribute to GHG reduction. Numerous studies have evaluated the CO2 reduction effects and economics of CCUs and CDRs; however, uncertainties in these evaluations due to various regional characterizations and future technological transitions are of high importance. In this study, four synthetic fuels (fuels produced from captured CO2 and H-2), methanol, methane, gasoline, and diesel, were evaluated by life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic assessment (TEA). Five representative countries with different regional characteristics were selected for the study. A bottom-up integrated LCA/TEA approach was used, involving detailed process simulations to avoid uncertainties and to evaluate future technological transitions based on direct air capture (DAC) and renewable energy. The overarching objective of this study was to provide a transparent framework with a common dataset generation methodology to determine the countries that have the advantages/disadvantages in synthetic fuel production and sale, considering the local operational parameters and large-scale introduction of DAC/renewable energy. Such multiple synthetic fuel analyses across various jurisdictions have not been conducted in previous studies. The results showed that the highest and lowest CO2 reductions were achieved by diesel (average 6.33 kg-CO2 center dot kg(-1)) and methanol (average 3.43 kg-CO2 center dot kg(-1)), respectively, whereas the highest and lowest product costs were of gasoline (average 2.96 USD center dot kg(-1)) and methanol (average 0.82 USD center dot kg(-1)), respectively. The technological transition using DAC and renewable energy showed average CO2 emission reductions of 47% (methanol), 99% (methane), 545% (gasoline), and 621% (diesel). Moreover, in the future, the lowest CO2 emission reduction costs are expected in Germany for methanol and diesel, Australia for methane, and Canada for gasoline. These findings can contribute to improving international collaboration to promote CCU and CDR technologies.