An Analysis of Landslide Risk Using the Change in the Volumetric Water Content Gradient in the Soil Layer Per Unit Time of Effective Cumulative Rainfall

The topographical characteristics of South Korea are coupled with heavy rain and typhoons concentrated from July to September, which take up two-thirds of the country’s annual precipitation, causing substantial damage from slope failures, landslides, debris flows, and other mountain disasters. This study uses the Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) data to study the area, which has been affected by numerous landslides in the past. Specifically, to analyze the likelihood of slope failure, this study simulates the rainfall events in the area at the time of the landslides as well as changes in the volumetric water content in the soil layer and uses the changes in the volumetric water content per unit time, which are affected by the effective cumulative rainfall within the soil layer. To that end, this study assesses the risk of landslides based on how rainwater infiltration in the saturation depth changes the saturation depth ratio and compares the results with the landslide spots in the past. Moreover, this study analyzes the landslide risk by applying the saturation depth ratio (Ht) to an infinite slope stability analysis model. The landslide threshold proposed in this study was obtained by analyzing the rainfall events that caused the landslides in the study area using the LAMP model. It can then be concluded that, when compared with the spatial information on the previous landslides, if the change in the volumetric water content per unit time during the first and second rainfall events is 0.7, a landslide may occur. These results indicated that the landslide risk increases the volumetric water content in the soil layer, along with the congruence between past landslide risk points and spatial landslide risks.