Relativistic binary-disc dynamics and OJ-287's flares: New parameter posteriors and future timing predictions

We revisit the precessing black hole binary model, a candidate to explain the bizarre quasi-periodic optical flares in OJ-287's light curve, from first principles. We deviate from existing work in three significant ways: 1) Including crucial aspects of relativistic dynamics related to the accretion disc's gravitational moments. 2) Adopting a model-agnostic prescription for the disc's density and scale height. 3) Using monte-carlo Markhov-chain methods to recover reliable system parameters and uncertainties. We showcase our model's predictive power by timing the 2019 great Eddington flare within 40 hr of the observed epoch, exclusively using data available prior to it. Additionally, we obtain a novel direct measurement of OJ-287's disc mass and quadrupole moment exclusively from the optical flare timings. Our improved methodology can uncover previously unstated correlations in the parameter posteriors and patterns in the flare timing uncertainties. In contrast to the established literature, we predict the 26th optical flare to occur on the 21st of August 2023 $\pm$ 32 days, shifted by almost a year with respect to the alleged "missing" flare of October 2022.