Assessing and simulating changes in ecosystem service value based on land use/cover change in coastal cities: A case study of Shanghai, China

The rapid economic development of coastal cities causes frequent land use/cover change (LUCC), which has a significant negative impact on the functions and services of coastal ecosystems. In this paper, we considered Shanghai, China, as the study area and assessed its ecosystem service value (ESV) using the equivalence coefficient table method based on land use data from 2000, 2010 and 2020. Multi-scenario simulations of LUCC and ESV in 2030 were carried out by establishing a future land use simulation (FLUS) model. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the most obvious features of LUCC in Shanghai included an increase in built-up land (an increase of 1388.09 km2) and a decrease in cultivated land (a decrease of 1355.85 km2). Wetland, woodland and grassland maintained a steady growth trend. During these two decades, the ESV in Shanghai decreased from 322.8417 million yuan to 311.8970 million yuan. In terms of the spatial distribution of LUCC and ESV, coastal areas had the most frequent occurrence of LUCC and contributed the most to the ESV. The multi-scenario simulation results showed that there was a significant improvement in the ESV of the ecological priority scenario (2.01% and 4.06% higher than the benchmark scenario and development priority scenario, respectively). In addition, several policy recommendations for the development and utilization of land in coastal cities are proposed, and the significant contribution of coastal areas to the ecological benefits of coastal cities is empirically demonstrated. These results can provide a theoretical basis and decision support for sustainable land management in coastal cities.