The evaluation of government subsidy policies on carbon emissions in the port collection and distribution network: a case study of Guangzhou Port

The collection and distribution network of ports is the main cause of carbon emissions. The carbon peak is a basic policy in China, and the subsidy policy is one of the common measures used by the government to incentivize carbon reduction. We analyzed the transportation methods and the flow direction of a port and proposed a carbon emission calculation method based on emission factors. Based on the transportation time and the cost, a generalized transportation utility function was constructed, and the logit model was used to analyze the impacts of subsidy policies on transportation, thus calculating the effects of the subsidies on carbon reduction. We used Guangzhou Port as a case study, and calculated the carbon reduction effects in six different subsidy policy scenarios and concluded that the absolute carbon reduction value was proportional to the subsidy intensity. In addition, we constructed a subsidy carbon reduction efficiency index and found that the Guangzhou Port collection and distribution network had higher subsidy carbon reduction efficiency in low-subsidy scenarios. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted on the subsidy parameters, and scenario 8 was found to have the highest subsidy carbon reduction efficiency. This achievement can provide decision support for the carbon emission strategy of the port collection and distribution network.