Dynamical variations of the COVID-19 with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron of Kazakhstan and Pakistan

Abstract Background The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron virus bring a formidable challenge to control and prevention for all the countries, especially for the low development countries. Hence, taking Kazakhstan and Pakistan as examples, this study aims to explore the COVID-19 transmissions with the omicron virus at different contact rates, quarantined rates and test rates. Methods A disease dynamical model is applied in which the population is divided into different individuals. Three time stages are divided according to the omicron transmission characteristics: first outbreak period, calm period and the second outbreak period. The population contact, population quarantine and disease test are considered with five different scenarios to analysis their impacts on the disease. Four statistical metrics are employed to quantify the model's performance, including the correlation coefficient (CC), normalized absolute error (NAE), normalized root mean square error (RMSE) and distance between indices of simulation and observation (DISO). Results Our model has high performance in simulating the COVID-19 transmission in the two countries with high CC bigger than 0.9, and the DISO smaller than 0.5. Compared with the present measures (base line), decreasing (increasing) the contact rates or increasing (decreasing) the quarantined rates can reduce (increase) the peak values of daily new cases and forward (delay) the peak value times. The impacts of the test rates on the disease are weak. When the start times of stage II is brought forward 6 days, the daily new cases are more than 8 and 5 times for Kazakhstan and Pakistan. The impacts of the start times of the stage III on the disease are contradict with the stage II. Conclusions For the two low development countries: Kazakhstan and Pakistan, stronger intensity of control and prevention measures can be more effective on the COVID-19 control. Therefore, to reduce or cut down the omicron transmission, the strict management of the population movement should be employed. Moreover, the timely application of the strategies also plays a key role in the disease control.