Statistical insights on the health of Indian economy: a multivariate analysis

This study investigates the health of the Indian economy through the various economic variables which are affecting the value of gross domestic product in any financial year. Initially, the study starts with the quarterly data of last 5 years (from April 2014 to March 2019) and multiple linear regression is performed. A correlation based significant analysis is done to recognize the most significant economic variables which is further strengthened by the principal component analysis. The interdependency of the selected economic variables and the regressed behaviour on their own historical observations motivated us to fit a multivariate time series model of a definite lag. We, therefore, observed the vector auto regressive model for a recollected time series data from a period of April 2000 to March 2020. Once the models have been fitted on the data sets, the fitted values are calculated and the residual diagnoses have been performed in each case. The overall results are found to be satisfactory.