The development of multi-hazard risk scenarios for use in sector specific analyses in Europe and beyond

<p>The topic of multiple hazards at sites has been in the mainstream for the past 50 years within Europe, however most studies have focussed on only a few key independent hazards and have been mostly limited to either buildings, specific sites like nuclear power plants or large scale studies. Less emphasis has been put on the application of these multiple hazards on particular sectors, and even less research has been done on the application of dependent hazard combinations.</p> <p>The use of stochastic event sets or empirical data for natural peril events provide a useful basis to determine potential pairs or group events affecting a site, however the interactions with the built infrastructure and even further to the socio-economic interactions in a sector such as tourism are usually very difficult to quantify. Companion abstracts present empirical data overlaps (Claassen et al.) and the stochastic event sets and probabilistic outputs (Schaefer et al.) in this EGU23.</p> <p>End-to-end independent and dependent scenarios are tested for a key sector, tourism, at various MYRIAD-EU test case sites, in order to examine which combinations merit quantitative, semi-quantitative or qualitative risk scenario methods. Quantitative and qualitative solutions are needed depending on the hazard combination, modellability, uncertainties and vulnerability and exposure feedbacks throughout the risk chain and risk metrics being examined. This is an extension from the work of the NARSIS project for nuclear power plants where a multi-hazard framework was used for sites across Europe.</p> <p>The use of the EEA-CATDAT database (also a separate abstract in EGU23) is made in order to look at the historical impacts of empirical events are examined which have affected the tourism sector for the Canary Islands, Veneto and the Danube region in order to gain insights into the depth of multi-hazard analyses required to properly understand an event impact chain. In addition, external and simultaneous factors such as COVID-19 and/or other health events, wars and shocks are also examined. This work is envisaged to be able to be used in Europe and potentially extended globally.</p>