Considering Uncertainty in Economic and Environmental Evaluation and Assessment of Integrated Technological Approaches

AbstractThe transition to clean energy sources is a “wicked problem” which requires coordination of a wide range of levels and stakeholders. Many climate issues require foresight from scientific labs, household decisions to deployment prototyping, corporate financing, government regulations and subsidies, and international cooperation. However, not only a wide range of issues and groups are involved but also the basis and uncertainty concerning the possible options are quickly evolving. This often means that detailed optimal analysis may quickly be obsolete. Instead, one approach to wicked problems is to attempt to understand the system at a high level and then propose potential options. The intermediate results of the deployed option are then monitored to provide periodic updates on the efficacy of the original decisions and the direction of the scenario. The breadth of the climate issue is so wide that it is difficult to get an understanding due to the global scale with long-term irreversible impacts. The approach to designing a strategy to deal with these issues involves the technologies, capacities, needs, potential policy actions, evaluation tools, followed by monitoring the real situation so that the process can be periodically. This paper focuses on the depth (sequence) of the problem, not its breadth (all options at each level). The technology of concern is carbon capture and storage (CCS) by reaction with rocks wither by enhanced weathering or deep-well injection. These methods have various advantages and risks for their characteristics in affecting the environment, their stability, and their life cycle analysis cost and carbon storing benefits. Further research questions are identified to help reduce the uncertainty to help guide further research and guiding the progress of application. It is proposed to periodically update the relative value of continued research and development options based on the current set of research results combined with the current expected climate change scenarios.KeywordsCarbon Capture and Storage (CCS)UncertaintyEnhanced WeatheringReal option analysisEarth system modelsIntegrated assessment models