China's Belt and Road Initiative: Quantifying the causal relationship between maritime connectivity and global trade

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a development strategy proposed by China in September 2013. Despite the growing importance of improved international transport connectivity and national trade logistics in promoting trade across geographic boundaries, past studies tend to focus on bilateral trade among members of the BRI, rather than trade beyond the Belt and Road (B&R) region. Besides, the joint effect of international transport connectivity and national trade logistics on improving trade is less well understood. To address this gap, the current study develops an extended gravity model with the Liner Shipping Bilateral Connectivity Index (LSBCI) and Logistics Performance Index (LPI) to account for their impacts on textile exports of 16 Asian countries or regions along the B&R to United States. The findings show the individual and joint positive effects of LSCI and LPI on textile exports from Asia to United States. This study adds value to the literature as it extends the trade gravity model to analyze the changing sectoral trade patterns between B&R and non-B&R economies and gives insights into the importance of enhancing both international maritime connectivity and domestic logistics performance for trade facilitation beyond the B&R.