Dismissed and newly planned babies during the COVID-19 pandemic. A study of the motivations behind changes in fertility plans and behaviors in Italy

While early evidence of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on births has suggested a depressive effect on fertility intentions and behaviours, not all individuals have equally suffered the indirect consequences of the pandemic, and especially those related with the increased uncertainty brought by the economic recession. This study accounts for the heterogeneous consequences of the pandemic on fertility plans and behaviours, by focusing on the motivations for suspended pre-Covid fertility plans and on those for new fertility plans and conceptions that arose during the pandemic. The reasons for the latter are almost unexplored. To do that, we rely on unique data collected with a repeated cross-sectional survey conducted in April/May 2021 and October/November 2021 (2000 respondents each) on a quota sample of young Italians (aged 18 to 34). After exploring the main motivations for changing pre-COVID fertility plans or for intending to conceive a previously unplanned child during the pandemic, we estimate a set of multinomial and logit models to examine some correlates of fertility plans and behaviours. Finally, by interpreting these results in light of the reported motivations, we provide a more qualitative analysis that allows for a deeper interpretation of the reasons behind the patterns of associations. Potentially complex and non-unidirectional mechanisms, only partially related with reducing financial and occupational vulnerability, emerge as relevant for supporting fertility during the pandemic.