The role of neighbourhood relations in confessionalisation

By means of a statistical model we study the adoption of Protestantism during the Reformation for 262 territories of the Holy Roman Empire. Our unit of analysis is a territory and the dependent variable indicates whether and when the territorial ruler adopted Protestantism. The independent variables are based on seven theoretical factors that historiographical research has identified to be important for the adoption of Protestantism, and on neighbourhood relations. We use an Event History Model to track changes in the variables over time and compute the importance of each driving factor. Our results reveal that geographic neighbourhood relations explain the adoption of Protestantism best. The more neighbourshad become protestant in the recent past, the more likely is a territory to become protestant itself. This effect is strongest for weak territories, which may point towards a strategic hesitation to adopt Protestantism in politically uncertain times.