Factors Influencing Four Decades of Forest Change in Guizhou Province, China

Globally, the loss of forest vegetation is a significant concern due to the crucial roles that forests play in the Earth's system, including the provision of ecosystem services, participation in biogeochemical cycles, and support for human well-being. Forests are especially critical in mountains environments, where deforestation can lead to accelerated biodiversity loss, soil erosion, flooding, and reduced agricultural productivity, as well as increased poverty rates. In response to these problems, China has implemented a series of ecological restoration programs aimed at restoring forests. However, there is a lack of knowledge as to whether the forest cover is increasing or decreasing, as well as the relative roles played by natural and human factors in forest change. Here, we aim to address these issues by analyzing the pattern and process of the forest changes in Guizhou province, a typical mountainous karst area with a fragile environment in southwestern China, between 1980 and 2018, and evaluating the extent to which these forest changes were influenced by natural and anthropogenic driving forces. Using a temporal sequence of satellite images and a Markov model, we found that the forest cover increased by 468 km(2), and that over 33% of the cropland in Guizhou province was converted into forest between 1980 and 2018, with the most significant increases in the forest cover occurring in Qiandongnan. Through correlation analyses and generalized linear model (GLM) regression, we demonstrate that management factors exerted a more significant positive impact on the forest cover than climate change. While the mean annual precipitation and temperature were mostly stable during the period studied, the effects of population and gross domestic product (GDP) on the forest changes weakened, and the influence of land-use change markedly increased. These findings provide valuable information for resource managers engaging in forest protection, deforestation prevention, and ecological restoration in similar regions.