Comprehensive evaluation and scenario simulation of water resources carrying capacity: A case study in Xiong'an New Area, China

Water resources play a pivotal role in sustaining and shaping urban development. To assess the suitability of a site for urban construction, a water-resource-carrying capacity (WRCC) assessment is typically conducted. Here, we expand on the concept of the WRCC and construct an evaluation system based on the water quantity, quality, watershed and flow (WQQSF). Using this WQQSF evaluation system, we investigated the suitability of water resources for the development of the Xiong'an New Area (XNA) in China. Specifically, we evaluated the WRCC of XNA from 2010 to 2020 and identified the main obstacle factors. By building a system dynamics (SD) model, we analyzed projected changes in the carrying capacity of XNA from 2021 to 2035. The main findings were as follows:(1) the average WQQSF-index was 0.32 from 2010 to 2017, which corresponds to the overload condition, and rises to 0.41 from 2018 to 2020, which corresponds to the critical overload condition. (2) From the perspective of obstacle factors, the water quantity factor has a large influence on the water resources bearing condition of XNA accounting for about 40 %. (3) Considering that XNA is a water-scarce area, we should first ensure the balance between the supply and demand of water resources, and secondly, choose the optimal sce-nario for the carrying capacity. Among the five scenarios based on uncertainty, the S3 scenario not only meets the balance of water resources supply and demand but also has the best-carrying index, which is 0.7, showing a weak carrying condition. To ensure the sustainable development of WRCC in XNA, water conservation and strict control of population size should be adhered to in the future while increasing water recharge through multiple channels. This study provides a decision basis for the management, rational development, and allocation of WRCC in XNA.