Predicting the Development Trend of the Second Wave of COVID-19 in Five European Countries

Abstract Background: Because the COVID-19 pandemic has made comprehensive and profound impacts on the world, an accurate prediction of its development trend is significant. In particular, the second wave of COVID-19 is rampant to cause a dramatic increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths globally. Methods: Using the Eureqa algorithm, we predicted the development trend of the second wave of COVID-19 in five European countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK. We first built models to predict daily numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths based on the data of the first wave of COVID-19 in these countries. Based on these models, we built new models to predict the development trend of the second wave of COVID-19. Results: We predicted that the second wave of COVID-19 would have peaked around on November 16, 2020, January 10, 2021, December 1, 2020, March 1, 2021, and January 10, 2021 in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK, respectively. It will be basically under control on April 26, 2021, September 20, 2021, August 1, 2021, September 15, 2021, August 10, 2021 in these countries, respectively. Their total number of COVID-19 cases will reach around 4,745,000, 7,890,000, 6,852,000, 8,071,000, and 10,198,000, respectively, and total number of COVID-19 deaths will be around 262,000, 262,000, 231,000, 253,000, and 350,000 during the second wave of COVID-19. The COVID-19 mortality rate in the second wave of COVID-19 is expected to be about 3.4%, 3.5%, 3.4%, 3.4%, and 3.1% in France, Spain, Germany, France, and UK, respectively. Conclusions: the second wave of COVID-19 is expected to cause many more cases and deaths, last for much longer time, and have lower COVID-19 mortality rate than the first wave.