Predicting Progression & Cognitive Decline in Amyloid-Positive Patients with Alzheimer's Disease

Abstract BackgroundIn Alzheimer’s disease (AD), amyloid- β (Aβ) peptides aggregate in the brain forming amyloid plaques, which are a key pathological hallmark of the disease. However, plaques may also be present in cognitively unimpaired elderly individuals. Therefore, it is of great value to explain the variance in disease progression among patients with Aβ pathology. MethodsA cohort of n= 2293 participants from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database was selected to study heterogeneity in disease progression for individuals with Aβ plaque pathology. The analysis used baseline clinical variables including demographics, genetic markers and neuropsychological data to predict how the cognitive ability and AD diagnosis of subjects progressed using statistical models and machine learning. Due to the limited prevalence of Aβ pathology, models fit only to Aβ-positive subjects were compared to models fit to an extended cohort including subjects without established Aβ pathology, adjusting for covariate differences between the cohorts. ResultsAβ pathology status was determined based the Aβ 42 /Aβ 40 ratio. The best predictive model of change in cognitive test scores for Aβ-positive subjects at the two-year follow-up achieved an R 2 score of 0.388 while the best model predicting adverse changes in diagnosis achieved a weighted F1 score of 0.791. Conforming to expectations, Aβ-positive subjects declined faster on average than those without Aβ pathology, but the specific level of Aβ plaques was not predictive of progression rate. For the four-year prediction task of cognitive score change, the best model achieved an R 2 score of 0.325 and it was found that fitting models to the extended cohort substantially improved performance. Moreover, using all clinical variables outperformed the best model based only on baseline cognitive test scores which achieved an R 2 score of 0.228. ConclusionOur analysis shows that levels of Aβ plaques are not strong predictors of the rate of cognitive decline in Aβ-positive subjects. Baseline assessments of cognitive function accounts for the majority of variance explained in the prediction of two-year decline but is insufficient for achieving optimal results in longer-term predictions. Predicting changes both in cognitive test scores and in diagnosis provides multiple perspectives of the progression of potential AD subjects.